IQ Weekly Takeaways for 7 June 2020


1) Global stocks turn technically overbought for the first time since March

2) Strong beat on jobs data in US

3) Betting markets are pricing Joe Biden as the favourite to win the US Presidential Race

4) OPEC+ extends oil production cuts by a month

5) Singapore’s retail sales decline makes history with a 40.5% drop in April


1) Global stocks turn technically overbought for the first time since March

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a commonly used short-term trading indicator that evaluates overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock. Stocks are deemed to be overbought and oversold when the index value hits 70 and 30 respectively.

For the first time since the March stock selloff, this indicator is now pointing that both global stocks (MSCI All Country World Index) and US stocks (S&P 500 Index) are short-term overbought.

We highlight some larger cap stocks that are trading >70 on RSI as of Friday’s close.

Source: Bloomberg, retrieved 6 June 2020

2) Strong beat on jobs data in US

The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 2.509 million jobs in May (a strong beat vs the 8 million jobs losses forecasted by economists), rebounding from a record plunge of 20.7 million jobs in April.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the jobless rate falling to 13.3% last month (vs 19.8% consensus forecast) from 14.7% in April.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-labor-market-unexpectedly-improves-recovery-years-away-idUSKBN23C0E9


3) Betting markets are pricing Joe Biden as the favourite to win the US Presidential Race

Former Vice President Joe Biden has surged past President Donald Trump in online markets betting on the outcome of the 2020 presidential race. The probability of Biden vs Trump being elected as President is now at 50% vs 43% on Smarkets and 53% vs 46% on PredictIt.

As recently as last week, Trump was favored to win on both platforms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/biden-takes-lead-over-trump-in-2020-presidential-race-betting-markets.html


3) OPEC+ extends oil production cuts by a month

OPEC and its allies led by Russia reached an agreement on Saturday to continue cutting 9.7 million barrels of oil production a day — or about 10 percent of global output in normal times — through July.

The alliance known as OPEC+ previously agreed to cut supply by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) during May-June to prop up prices that collapsed due to the coronavirus crisis. Cuts were due to taper to 7.7 million bpd from July to December.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-russia-opec-graphics/opec-russia-meet-to-extend-record-oil-cuts-push-for-compliance-idUSKBN23D007

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/business/energy-environment/opec-russia-oil-coronavirus.html


Singapore’s retail sales decline makes history with a 40.5% drop in April

This marks the largest decline in the metric since its adoption in 1986. It is also a significant deepening from the 13.3% decline registered in March.

Consumer-facing sectors took the greatest hit, with takings for watches and jewellery (-87.8%), wearing apparel and footwear (-85.3%) and department stores (-84.6%) registering significant declines.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/singapore-economy/retail-sales-makes-history-405-decline-april-following-circuit-breaker

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