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Introduction

Two months ago, I received a link to a PropNex lucky draw. I was about to shrug it off but the prizes caught my attention “Brand New Condominium and Cash Prizes worth over $800,000”…

As a child, I used to frown at adults buying lottery. Didn’t these adults learn about probability and how to compute expected value?

Fast forward to today, and my wife is the one now frowning at my occasional lottery purchase. I justify to her that even if I don’t win, I’m contributing to fulfilling someone’s else’s dreams. Furthermore, a large part of the profits made by Singapore Pools is channeled to social causes. Hence, its akin to buying a seat at a charity dinner which happens to also have a lucky draw.

Long story short, I submitted my personal particulars for the PropNex Lucky Draw.

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Article Summary

1) Lucky Draw Details

2) What are the chances of winning?

Registration Link to Enter

Appendix: Treasure at Tampines details

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1) Lucky Draw Details

While the lucky draw is marketed as part of PropNex’s 20^th Anniversary celebration, it would be foolhardy to think that PropNex would give out over S$800k of prizes for free. The actual intention is more likely to advertise the launch of its new membership program called PropNex Friends (paying S$1 to join it is a pre-requisite for the lucky draw), in addition to it being a data mining exercise.

Don’t be expecting too much but PropNex Friends members are entitled to (in PropNex’s words):

• Exclusive lifestyle rewards, privileges and special deals
• PropNex TV – Premium videos on demand
• Real estate research and insightful reports
• VIP access to PropNex events and activities

If you are okay with potentially receiving marketing materials from PropNex and keen to participate in the lucky draw, here’s what you need to know.

Requirements: Sign up for a PropNex Friends account, which costs S$1 one-off

Registration Period: Till 24 Jun 2021

Participant restrictions: Must be above 18 years old and a Singapore Citizen or Permanent Resident

Registration Link to Enter

Prizes to be won:

• 1^st: New 1-bedder with study private condominium at Treasure at Tampines (worth $788,000)
• 2^nd: S$20k cash
• 3^rd: S$10k cash
• 4^th: S$8k cash
• 5^th to 10^th (consolation prizes): S$2k cash each

Draw date: 27 June 2021 (winners will be informed by email or other methods)

Prize Collection: To qualify for the top 5 prizes, you have to be physically present on 27 June 2021. Those who can’t be present will receive consolation prizes of S$2k each instead. (note: I think PropNex made a typo, since the 5^th prize is a already a S$2k consolation prize)

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2) What are the chances of winning?

As mentioned earlier, participants must be Singapore Citizens or Permanent Residents above 18 years old. Based on Singapore’s resident population age demographics (chart below), the lucky draw would be open to approx 3.2 million people.

Next, we will need to estimate the participation rate among the 3.2 million eligible people. I would guess somewhere between 0.5% to 2.5%, which implies 16,000 to 80,000 lucky draw participants.

The expected probability of winning 1 of the 10 prizes would be 0.0125% to 0.0625%, assuming all 16,000 to 80,000 participants have equal odds.

Despite the low odds of winning, there’s actually positive expected value from this lucky draw. The expected return would be S$10 to S$50 ($800k divided by 16k to 80k participants), minus the S$1 PropNex Friends member fee.

3 ways to increase your lucky draw chances

Registration Link to Enter

Signing up for a ProxNex Friends account gives you 1 chance in the lucky draw. But there are three other things you can do to increase your lucky draw chances:

• 1 extra chance – Complete a PropNex survey, which is accessible in your PropNex Friends account
• 2 extra chances – Purchase a Monopoly PropNex Edition for S$42.99
• 1 extra chance per referral (capped at 20)

PropNex is also throwing in some GrabFood vouchers, for PropNex Friends referrals made between 8 May to 20 June 2021. GrabFood vouchers are given to the referrer only, for the 1^st, 3^rd, 5^th and 10^th referral (see below image).

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Appendix: Treasure at Tampines details

Treasure at Tampines is a 99-year leasehold condo developed by Sim Lian Group, with an expected TOP date in Dec-2023. It consists 29 blocks of 12-storey buildings, housing 2,203 residential units. To give context on the scale of this project, the land size is approximately 11 football fields.

The location of the condo is shown below. It’s a 15mins walk from Simei MRT.

I was curious as to what the first prize condo unit actually entails, so I retrieved the floor plan for the “1-bedder with study” unit (below image), which states that the unit size is 484 sqft.

Good luck if you do participate, and drop us a comment if you happen to win anything eventually. Will be happy to know if our article resulted in a positive outcome!